Well the truth is that it's not really about medical science anymore. The administration was too late to the party to use testing as an effective weapon against the spread of COVID19. For testing to keep this thing under control, we would have needed to be at our current testing capacity in February. The way testing works is you identify a breakout, isolate people with the virus and then track the people they were in contact with and isolate them too. Without proper testing the virus spread all over so now it would be difficult to stop it. At this point, the vaccine is the only way to get this under control.
However the economy can't wait 18 months for a vaccine, so really the only option for governors and mayors is to open up and hope for the best. Here are a couple things that we are just going to have to accept:
1. COVID19 started in China and spread around the world. China has almost no black or brown people, as is the case in Russia, Italy, Spain, and several other critically impacted nations. The myth that this virus attacks minorities is simply not logical. Minorities were disproportionately impacted in NY because they comprise the majority of the service industries (bus/train drivers, janitors, orderlies, trashmen, etc.), white collar people were isolating at home. If this spreads to middle America a lot of white people are going to die. This is a fascinating and scary issue as you can clearly see that the media has marching orders from something other than the truth. I think the powers that be told the media that we have to open or lose the country as we know it. The right media painted this as a black & brown virus and we're not crashing the most powerful economy in history for that. The Left media is pushing the social inequality perspective. So while the left and right positions are 2 totally different extremes, they both reinforce the point that we are going to sacrifice black, brown, and old people so the population will go back to work with a false sense of security. If the media was honest, they would post COVID19 totals by job classification as that reflects what is really going on.
2. When the medical system gets overwhelmed, everyone will suffer. There is simply no room for people with the typical average day's issues. As people resume normal levels of activity, the need for emergency care will increase dramatically. People don't realize that our hospital system is already over burdened as it is, this will quickly push things over the top.
3. Even if you open businesses there is no guarantee people will come. Most small restaurants are barely profitable. Opening means adding back staff and most restaurants won't be able to make these numbers work. I have a friend that has a restaurant and he says he is making about 60% of what he was doing just offering curbside. He thinks he will actually lose money if he opens up. Bottom line is people are learning to live without a lot of things we used to rely on. Who knows how long it takes to change people's habits permanently but that's happening. And obviously business is adjusting. That's all going to make turning on the old economy pretty chaotic.
4. No one is talking about liability. What if a store has a staff member with the virus and they start a little epidemic? What is enough precaution to insulate the business from law suites? If a business id deemed essential, that's essentially their get out of jail free card. But if opening is optional, well let's just say a lot of ambulance chasers are licking their lips on that one.
5. The 2007 Bank crash was caused when 18% of the mortgages were in default. We have 35 million people unemployed currently and it is climbing fast. How long will it be before people start defaulting and this becomes a serious financial issue? What's really scary is that all of the controls on the economy are pegged. We lowered taxes so trillions of dollars can't be used to balance services, the Fed has had interest rates at historic lows, the stock market is over valued and running independent of what's going on in the economy, and now the government is hogging trillions from other bowers (that means the government is getting crazy big). There are no tools to bolster a crash this time. Yes, that's why I bought a shot gun.
8. This has all laid the failures of our system bare. The distribution of wealth is as out of balance as it has ever been. Clearly we need socialize medicine, our current insurance based system has collapsed. Even our government it turns out is more controlled by tradition and good sense that enforceable laws and the constitution. And finally, race is as divisive and issue as it was in 1860. Sigh! A lot of work to do lady's and gentleman. I remember watching the people in Bosnian Conflict destroy a culture that looked like the back drop for a wonderful fairy tale. I wondered what could be worth destroying such beauty and accomplishment. I fear we are going there, for nothing.
7. We are going into a period where the only path through is strong leadership. We'll need a leader of historic ability to build the partnerships needed to weather this storm and save the country. Unfortunately, we have a president who won't even acknowledge he has the reigns. He lies habitually and even his supporters don't believe what he says. Finally he plays only to 40% of the country and is purposefully punitive to the other 60%. That's just not going to get this done. And if that wasn't scary enough, I'm not 100% sure Biden is the answer, even though he is probably the next president.
Mean nasty bastid...its all I've got for fun these days.
