Iran, Nukes and Oil (by GEN Barry McCaffrey)

[skydivr]

The unclassified link provided is a briefing by GEN Barry McCaffery (USA, RET) regarding the military capabilities of Iran and the potential for armed conflict. He believes that is a real likelyhood that Iran could take military action to acutally close the Straights of Hormuz, at least in the short term and at a great cost, but also the probability that they COULD sink a US Carrier if caught in the fishbowl. He thinks there is a 15% probablility that the Iranians, under pressure internally and externally, might actually be crazy enough to do it....

I happen to think he's right, a carrier needs quite a bit of blue water to properly defend itself, and the Straights don't have it. Sinking a US Carrier would be a HUGE victory (even if only in the short run) for the Iranians.

This could be bigger than either Iraq or Afghanistan...

http://www.michaelyon-online.com/images/pdf/mccaffrey-nbc-iran-nukes-and-oil-january-122012.pdf

[Chris79761TX]

All we can hope for is that this doesn't happen while Obama is our president.

[skydivr]

I am gonna be REALLY pissed off if Iran messes with my upcoming track season!

[Blanca BusaLess]

Don't take this wrong folks.

I AM RED BLOODED AMERICAN BY BIRTH AND WILL DIE ONE.
Hard core defender to the end....

But....

We the united states and the rest of the world cannot stop the inevitable.
Iran will have a nuclear weapon. Period. Nothing can stop it. We can green light an Israeli attack but it will only serve to delay and not stop the development or their nuclear program. The straights of Hormuz to us are intl waters but to Iran and the rest of the world it is Irans territory. I think it selfish and foolish of us to assume we have right to it? Iran considered our enemy still buys and sell their oil on the intl market IN US DOLLARS. The entire world still trades oil in us dollars. That's why it's called the Petro Dollar! We use our enemies to continue belief the American dollar is world standard currency. These funds go thru American financial institutions. In effect Iran is helping our economy continue to survive. Our problem with Iran is they continue to threaten Israel. Well you know what. As an American I could care less! It is difficult for one to speak out and say they do not care what Iran says regarding Israel and not be labeled Anti-Semitic. It is even more difficult for an American of Arab descent to say same. But I assure you I hold no ill will toward Israel I am just tired of our foreign policy being dictated by Israeli fears. If Iran was threatening to wipe any other country off the map we would not care one bit. We need Iran more than our govt will tell you. I don't speak Farsee and I don't think anyone here does so truthfully none of us know what Ahmedinajad (spelling) actually says. His words can easily be misconstrued or taken out of context to suit our purposes. I'm not saying he never has said what they tell us only that it may not reflect his meaning or true words.
I don't think Iran is foolish enough to attack one of our carriers but I do think they will retaliate for anything they would rightfully be able to justify.
What is more likely is an Israeli attack on one or more of their facilities. This is turn will demand retaliation at which point sides will be taken and allies gained or lost on both sides. There was an article in the New York Times magazine other day titled 'will Israel attack Iran. It was from an interview with an ex mossad chief. He thinks his country is close to attacking but in his own words it would be a mistake. Regime change is the only way to bring Iran around. I think we need to GTFO of the middle east and let them sort it out. War has been there for 5000 years. Nothing will stop it. Arabs and Jews have fought for same time. Nothing will stop it. I don't want to see a single American drop of blood shed protecting anyone anymore in that area.


Article from Ny Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-attack-iran.html?_r=2

[GNBRETT]

Sinking a US Carrier would be a HUGE victory (even if only in the short run) for the Iranians.

This could be bigger than either Iraq or Afghanistan...

http://www.michaelyon-online.com/images/pdf/mccaffrey-nbc-iran-nukes-and-oil-january-122012.pdf

I dont think that is likely. the Iranians are homicidal not suicidal. sinking or even attacking a US carrier would surely result in a wrath of US military punishment that would be suicidal.

[jellyrug]

Never underestimate support for Israel. They have very strong connections in very high places, world wide, from Russia, Europe to here. If war breaks out between the two, that will be the end of Iran. The Persians are a very proud nation, to their own detriment.

[Warchild]

I spent my entire Naval career on aircraft carriers..... the old Kilo class Soviet subs did indeed give us a lot of concern even way back then.

If Iran has three of them floating about, we know exactly where they are.

[skydivr]

So, Saiid, question: Do you think Iran's Nuke ambitions are strictly for peaceful purposes? or not?

[skydivr]

I don't care who you are, if you shoot 1000 missiles/rockets/bombs/torpedos at a carrier, some of them are gonna get thru....

[Taylor]

Try not to worry about things you cannot control, like the weather and war.

Now let's worry about things you can, like the new BMW, motosports it was, correct

[Blanca BusaLess]

So, Saiid, question: Do you think Iran's Nuke ambitions are strictly for peaceful purposes? or not?

Depends on what you call 'peaceful'?
Reagan believed in peace thru strength. Built up our military with no intention of using it.
I don't think Iran will use nuke bombs on Israel or anyone the day one comes off the line.
I do think they would retaliate with one should they be attacked without just cause.

I don't understand our hypocrisy in telling others they cannot posses Nukes?
We have GIVEN them to Irans enemy, Israel. Our gift has created Irans desire to be equally equipped as their enemies. Is that not fair thought? Did we not arm ourselves as well as we found to combat a perceived Soviet threat? Where do we get off telling other sovereign nations they can't develop defense strategies? What gives us right to tell Iran no nukes? Simply because they do not recognize Israel and have said the want to wipe them off the map is not cause enough for me to worry. Iran crazy as they may be have not threatened us. I don't think they ever will. A nuclear Iran would never be a threat to the USA. Could they or anyone else smuggle a bomb into our country and set it off killing many? Sure, but that would not be a threat to our national security. I worry only about other countries who could actually cause this nation great harm. Iran can't and I don't think they are stupid enough to try. They simply want to be as well armed and protected as their enemies. That is every countries desire. Iran is a very populous country and nuclear energy could serve them well. Of course from that comes ability to develop weapons.

I do honestly believe Israel will soon attack Irans facilities in a futile attempt to 'stop' the development. They attacked Iraq years ago and did same in Syria. The world did nothing. Understand that. Two sovereign nations were attacked with fighter jets and had facilities bombed out of fear of the future and the world did NOTHING! An Israeli attack on Iran may go same way with no retaliation or it may result in severe repercussions worldwide. We know other Arab nations will rightfully align themselves with Iran. And we know what side we will support. I fear we may be drawn into a huge friggin mess out of Israeli fear. And I think our unconditional private and public support of Israel may create more desire for Israel to act. I don't think Israel would be so bold if we were not standing behind them like a big brother. No matter how wrong or right actions by Israel against Iran are the USA will always defend Israel. Behind closed doors we may be like 'wtf have you gotten us into' but public support will never wain. A few days a few weeks goes by and the flames of conflict begin to engulf the region the USA will have no choice other than to go attempt a clean up on aisle seven. It could get nasty. We have been in Iraq now for more than twenty years. From 1991 till now we are still there. I have a five year old son. I don't want him fighting in unjust wars. I support the military and troops and thru my many posts and threads here I'm sure y'all realize this. But I feel many have fallen and even more have sacrificed limbs and abilities in the two current conflicts which should have never happened. Enough policing the world and protecting others.

Sorry for the long wind but there are no easy quick answers for this area.

[sixpack577]

I think if Iran wants a nuclear weapon we should give it to them

[Blanca BusaLess]

I don't care who you are, if you shoot 1000 missiles/rockets/bombs/torpedos at a carrier, some of them are gonna get thru....

We put missiles in Poland, less than 100 miles from Soviet border.
Ussr puts missiles in Cuba within same distance of us and we have a kiniption?

I don't understand our hypocrisy sometimes. Ok for us but not for you?

Sail a carrier back and forth directly in front of someone and in waters they consider theirs and don't be surprised if they attack. Our actions create our fears sometimes. Why are there no German, French or British carriers in the straights? Why is our job to patrol it? Or do you think the ones who want conflict have our carrier bait out there trolling for an Iranian attack? No carrier no carrier gets attacked. Hey there's an idea!

[newman]

I think we sent a frigate HMS Argyll along for the trip.
I think in the UK we've got rid of all our carriers until 2020, when our new ones will be ready, yep got planes but no ships to land them on.

[jellyrug]

Depends on what you call 'peaceful'?
Reagan believed in peace thru strength. Built up our military with no intention of using it.
I don't think Iran will use nuke bombs on Israel or anyone the day one comes off the line.
I do think they would retaliate with one should they be attacked without just cause.

I don't understand our hypocrisy in telling others they cannot posses Nukes?
We have GIVEN them to Irans enemy, Israel. Our gift has created Irans desire to be equally equipped as their enemies. Is that not fair thought? Did we not arm ourselves as well as we found to combat a perceived Soviet threat? Where do we get off telling other sovereign nations they can't develop defense strategies? What gives us right to tell Iran no nukes? Simply because they do not recognize Israel and have said the want to wipe them off the map is not cause enough for me to worry. Iran crazy as they may be have not threatened us. I don't think they ever will. A nuclear Iran would never be a threat to the USA. Could they or anyone else smuggle a bomb into our country and set it off killing many? Sure, but that would not be a threat to our national security. I worry only about other countries who could actually cause this nation great harm. Iran can't and I don't think they are stupid enough to try. They simply want to be as well armed and protected as their enemies. That is every countries desire. Iran is a very populous country and nuclear energy could serve them well. Of course from that comes ability to develop weapons.

I do honestly believe Israel will soon attack Irans facilities in a futile attempt to 'stop' the development. They attacked Iraq years ago and did same in Syria. The world did nothing. Understand that. Two sovereign nations were attacked with fighter jets and had facilities bombed out of fear of the future and the world did NOTHING! An Israeli attack on Iran may go same way with no retaliation or it may result in severe repercussions worldwide. We know other Arab nations will rightfully align themselves with Iran. And we know what side we will support. I fear we may be drawn into a huge friggin mess out of Israeli fear. And I think our unconditional private and public support of Israel may create more desire for Israel to act. I don't think Israel would be so bold if we were not standing behind them like a big brother. No matter how wrong or right actions by Israel against Iran are the USA will always defend Israel. Behind closed doors we may be like 'wtf have you gotten us into' but public support will never wain. A few days a few weeks goes by and the flames of conflict begin to engulf the region the USA will have no choice other than to go attempt a clean up on aisle seven. It could get nasty. We have been in Iraq now for more than twenty years. From 1991 till now we are still there. I have a five year old son. I don't want him fighting in unjust wars. I support the military and troops and thru my many posts and threads here I'm sure y'all realize this. But I feel many have fallen and even more have sacrificed limbs and abilities in the two current conflicts which should have never happened. Enough policing the world and protecting others.

Sorry for the long wind but there are no easy quick answers for this area.

Blanca,

I have no opinion here, just so you know.
You need to understand the connection between Israel, Jews outside of Israel and the connection with the international community. If you understand that, you will know why they are favored. You will further understand especially why they are favored over a country such as Iran.
Also, to make a small nuclear device that can be smuggled over the border is easy today. That can be done behind many borders without the knowledge of anyone. When it comes to bigger warfare, that is a different story.

[skydivr]

The Brits actually sent several warships thru the straights with the carrier battle group as a sign of solidarity.

Israel has never made the threat to wipe Iran off the map, and Israel didn't get attacked by all the Arab nations like 4X, nor does Isreal lob missiles into it's neighbors, nor does Israeli citizens go into Arab countries and suicide-bomb busses, and if Iran would drop that BS, then Israel would not feel threatened.

I happen to think the Israeli's have more self-control when it comes to nukes than Iran. And if I had to choose which one I'd take as an ally over the others, I'd pick Isreal every time. It's clear who the antagonist in the region is...

But you are right - if they didn't have the oil and didn't export terrorism outside the region, we'd be glad to sit back and watch them slaughter each other silly; it's why we've not really spent a lot of effort in Africa (yet).

[Blanca BusaLess]

The Brits actually sent several warships thru the straights with the carrier battle group as a sign of solidarity.

Israel has never made the threat to wipe Iran off the map, and Israel didn't get attacked by all the Arab nations like 4X, nor does Isreal lob missiles into it's neighbors, nor does Israeli citizens go into Arab countries and suicide-bomb busses, and if Iran would drop that BS, then Israel would not feel threatened.

I happen to think the Israeli's have more self-control when it comes to nukes than Iran. And if I had to choose which one I'd take as an ally over the others, I'd pick Isreal every time. It's clear who the antagonist in the region is...

But you are right - if they didn't have the oil and didn't export terrorism outside the region, we'd be glad to sit back and watch them slaughter each other silly; it's why we've not really spent a lot of effort in Africa (yet).

Keith Israel assassinates people daily. They do send their agents into countries to slap magnet bombs onto people's cars to kill them. Yes it was them no doubt. Or us who knows, but it was t anybody else. What is more antagonizing? Talk or action? How many Israelis have been assassinated where Iran was blamed? How many Iranian scientists have been assassinated where the whole world knows who did it? Iran has never fired a missile into Israel either. Does Iran support Israel's enemies sure but so does Israel support Irans enemies. Sure Ahmedinajad has supposedly said he wants to wipe Israel off the map but he doesn't speak for all not is he the one who has real power there. For each and every example of 'terrorism' you can say regarding Iran there are equal arguements regarding Israel. Iran did not invade southern Lebanon, level whole neighborhoods, use banned phosphor bombs or violate Geneva convention multiple times without concern did they? We can go on all day back and forth but in the end neither your points or mine result in a threat to our Natl security.

Jelly I do understand Israel and Jews reputation worldwide. But it does not make them anymore right than anyone else.

[zukracer]

The day we pull out the bulk of our ground forces in Iraq & Afghan we are basically hoping like hell that Iran and Syria don't just walk in and say "boo we are the boss now". This stuff with the straights & oil are tough, but $5/gal for gas will destroy the US economy and likely cause a far greater issue globally with other economies. We have our ships there regardless of others because until they build a pipeline or find another way to get the oil out we have to have it. Perhaps less because of the actual oil coming from the region and more because of what it does to the oil futures and current prices on wall street. The president of the USA (whom ever that is) and the congress have two choices 1) protect and ensure there is no interruptions to supply as best they can, up to and including military action or 2) find a way to regulate what fuel sells for domestically (gas, diesel, fuel oil, etc), essentially forcing a set price of oil sold here or finding cheaper sources. Which of these two options do you think is easier? Which do you think will actually happen?

This is more than just about nukes in Iran, political crap between the various countries in the region. This is about OIL in some form or another. EVERYTHING is more expensive today because of the craptastic global economy, ours being one of the largest of course and the value of a USD. There are lots of charts, slide shows, etc making the rounds for political reasons but we are not in a better place today than we were several years ago. That's not a slap at Obama, thats just fact and I'm not sure even if Bush had remained we would be much if any better off today. The global economy has changed and sadly we are ALL focused on oil as a driver for the economy, there are just too many new needs globally. You think the great depression was bad, watch what happens if we go to war with Iran and the entire area becomes unstable enough and spooks the oil barons. We could see prices at the pump $5, 7, 10/gal. You'd be hard pressed to fill the busa and go to work @$50/tank for 200-250miles of travel much less your 15mpg trucks or semi's that get far less mpg. Sure if we can take care of some big national and global security concerns while we are there, that's awesome and certainly a motivator but I assure you oil is in the top 2 reasons we are ramping up our presence there. All of the talk about helping Israel and stopping the nuclear production, etc is more political grandstanding and azz grabbing at this point.

I think the General's preso is pretty spot on, sadly I think we will see some form of military interaction in the region sooner than later. And you my friend are right about Africa, though we both know that your (yet) is closer than most folks would want to believe

[Blanca BusaLess]

Has Iran ever done anything like this?

Gaza Aid Convoy Attack: Israel’s Murderous Sea Piracy a Horrendous Moment of Truth for US Policy

Not a single weapon, even so little as a knife was found aboard any ship.
Nor did they find any illegal arms or anything that wasn't supposed to be there.

This is just one of many incidents gone unpunished because of who the perpetrators were.

[Blanca BusaLess]

The day we pull out the bulk of our ground forces in Iraq & Afghan we are basically hoping like hell that Iran and Syria don't just walk in and say "boo we are the boss now". This stuff with the straights & oil are tough, but $5/gal for gas will destroy the US economy and likely cause a far greater issue globally with other economies. We have our ships there regardless of others because until they build a pipeline or find another way to get the oil out we have to have it. Perhaps less because of the actual oil coming from the region and more because of what it does to the oil futures and current prices on wall street. The president of the USA (whom ever that is) and the congress have two choices 1) protect and ensure there is no interruptions to supply as best they can, up to and including military action or 2) find a way to regulate what fuel sells for domestically (gas, diesel, fuel oil, etc), essentially forcing a set price of oil sold here or finding cheaper sources. Which of these two options do you think is easier? Which do you think will actually happen?

This is more than just about nukes in Iran, political crap between the various countries in the region. This is about OIL in some form or another. EVERYTHING is more expensive today because of the craptastic global economy, ours being one of the largest of course and the value of a USD. There are lots of charts, slide shows, etc making the rounds for political reasons but we are not in a better place today than we were several years ago. That's not a slap at Obama, thats just fact and I'm not sure even if Bush had remained we would be much if any better off today. The global economy has changed and sadly we are ALL focused on oil as a driver for the economy, there are just too many new needs globally. You think the great depression was bad, watch what happens if we go to war with Iran and the entire area becomes unstable enough and spooks the oil barons. We could see prices at the pump $5, 7, 10/gal. You'd be hard pressed to fill the busa and go to work @$50/tank for 200-250miles of travel much less your 15mpg trucks or semi's that get far less mpg. Sure if we can take care of some big national and global security concerns while we are there, that's awesome and certainly a motivator but I assure you oil is in the top 2 reasons we are ramping up our presence there. All of the talk about helping Israel and stopping the nuclear production, etc is more political grandstanding and azz grabbing at this point.

I think the General's preso is pretty spot on, sadly I think we will see some form of military interaction in the region sooner than later. And you my friend are right about Africa, though we both know that your (yet) is closer than most folks would want to believe

So Zuk Exxon claimed a 10 BILLION dollar profit in last quarter of last year.
If they make that much why does gas have to go up because trouble arises in the middle east?
The same people trying to make us fear Iran are same ones gouging our eyes out at the pump.
'They' will allow us to think war or conflict is needed there and gas has to go up so they can continue to make billions. Difficult for me to believe rising gas prices are anything else other than greed. And with greed comes loss of conscience and 'I don't care'. When Exxon reports a loss with no profit made I'll accept that we have to do what we have to do to 'preserve our supply' even though the majority of it comes from Canada.