Thoughts about the models for the Covid 19 outlook April 2020

We had another death last night as a result of this pandemic. He just recently got back from New Jersey.

The death in this county before that one was a guy from a nursing home who has no family here, has not had visitors, and has not left his room in months. He was isolated from the world yet still got it.

This virus does not discriminate and picks even the most isolated people. It's only a matter of time before half of the population gets it. How we handle it will determine our future.
 
The ignoring of advice is terrifying. I see customers everyday out doing no essential things to their cars and who knows what other errands they're running. They would be be scared straight by spending a day watching first hand what's going on in New York etc.
 
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I went out to fill up my gas cans for mowers (1 acre lot) this morning using rubber gloves to touch the pump and I had to go to the post office to check my P.O. box. Came home disinfected things I touched. I wear a different coat every time I go out.

I live in a rural town but we had one confirmed case already. Louisville has many. It is about 12 miles away. My wife got to work at home because she works for a payroll company that was deemed essential.

Stay safe all.
 
We had another death last night as a result of this pandemic. He just recently got back from New Jersey.

The death in this county before that one was a guy from a nursing home who has no family here, has not had visitors, and has not left his room in months. He was isolated from the world yet still got it.

This virus does not discriminate and picks even the most isolated people. It's only a matter of time before half of the population gets it. How we handle it will determine our future.

Man thank you for what you do and going out every day and facing this daunting tasks. I know personally that your role is usually a physical and mental challange but the emotional toll has to be unbearable. THANK YOU for the courage to go back every day.

Cap
 
I went out to fill up my gas cans for mowers (1 acre lot) this morning using rubber gloves to touch the pump and I had to go to the post office to check my P.O. box. Came home disinfected things I touched. I wear a different coat every time I go out.

I live in a rural town but we had one confirmed case already. Louisville has many. It is about 12 miles away. My wife got to work at home because she works for a payroll company that was deemed essential.

Stay safe all.

Exactly, I wear gloves, then use saniter every time I go out for something like this. We are even making sure that we are cleaning the door handles and steering wheel and getting into good habits. Very intentional actions with with very calculated risk.
 
The ignoring of advice is terrifying. I see customers everyday out doing no essential things to their cars and who knows what other errands they're running. They would be be scared straight by spending a day watching first hand what's going on in New York etc.

Yep, I see it every day too. Heck I have friends that still think that it's not real. Here is a comment I made earlier today to some friends.

"The real problem is that by the time we start to see that exponential increase in cases it's to late to make that stand against the spread. I am a little suprised as the seemingly unconcerned folks still going about their day to day as though nothing was at our borders and letting their kids go run around at a friends house or taking unnecessary risk. We literally have doctors and nurses in other states in THIS country telling us how fast this came upon them and how bad it really is and yet we have droves of people that are still in denial. Now we are getting disheartning numbers of modeled fatality rates over the next few week for our country. I said it in another post that the virus is dangerous but people are what should make us concerned. Behaviors can make the difference but collectively we refuse to make the adjustments."
 
Exactly, I wear gloves, then use saniter every time I go out for something like this. We are even making sure that we are cleaning the door handles and steering wheel and getting into good habits. Very intentional actions with with very calculated risk.
I have pulled out our old UVC light wands we got at Costco about a decade ago. Every so often just go over everything in the house with them in addition to the wife's ongoing sanitizing efforts. Keeping rubber gloves in the car for gas and grocery shopping. Haven't resorted to the mask yet but I am prepared to do so. I ventured out to Costco on Monday and was pleasantly surprised by the experience for the most part, only had to bark at one woman for getting in my grill! I hate going there in normal times, but I have to say it was not as stressful as I thought it might be! The good news is that they had everything on my list including meat and TP so it was good in that respect. Some people still don't get it, and they most likely will become statistics or carriers, nothing I can do about that.
 
The human factor scares me more than the virus itself frankly. People acting irrationally, panick buying, not heeding the advice of the medical professionals etc. The impact to medical infrastructure is the immediate concern, but at some point just getting to the grocery store for basics will be compromised and Martial law becomes a very real concern. Hope it doesn't get to that point.

Take care all and stay safe!
and this:eek:
 
I have pulled out our old UVC light wands we got at Costco about a decade ago. Every so often just go over everything in the house with them in addition to the wife's ongoing sanitizing efforts. Keeping rubber gloves in the car for gas and grocery shopping. Haven't resorted to the mask yet but I am prepared to do so. I ventured out to Costco on Monday and was pleasantly surprised by the experience for the most part, only had to bark at one woman for getting in my grill! I hate going there in normal times, but I have to say it was not as stressful as I thought it might be! The good news is that they had everything on my list including meat and TP so it was good in that respect. Some people still don't get it, and they most likely will become statistics or carriers, nothing I can do about that.

I have one of these in my duct work in the house.. I put it in 17 years ago when I built it and it only cost about 35.00 a year for a new bulb. I would suggest this to everyone, not just for the COVID issue but for any bacteria or virus.

uv-12-2.jpg


 
I have one of these in my duct work in the house.. I put it in 17 years ago when I built it and it only cost about 35.00 a year for a new bulb. I would suggest this to everyone, not just for the COVID issue but for any bacteria or virus.

View attachment 1616057

Is this on 24/7 or just on demand with you HVAC system? We put in a new heat pump a few years ago and it has a MERV-16 filter which is supposedly good down to .3 microns. But this is interesting!
 
Is this on 24/7 or just on demand with you HVAC system? We put in a new heat pump a few years ago and it has a MERV-16 filter which is supposedly good down to .3 microns. But this is interesting!

On 24 x 7 and I have a variable speed blower that I keep on that turns about 450 cfm all the time. All of the air in my house circulates several times throughout the day so it helps.
 
We had another death last night as a result of this pandemic. He just recently got back from New Jersey.

The death in this county before that one was a guy from a nursing home who has no family here, has not had visitors, and has not left his room in months. He was isolated from the world yet still got it.

This virus does not discriminate and picks even the most isolated people. It's only a matter of time before half of the population gets it. How we handle it will determine our future.
How die this guy get it being isolated like he was...???

Must have been from a staff member who was a carrier...unless this virus can go airborne (without a course).
 
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