Thoughts about the models for the Covid 19 outlook April 2020

[captain]

Curious what your thoughts are in regards to the outlook of 100k - 240k of our countrymen dieing over this virus outbreak that was announced from the White House?

I pray none of our folks have been affected medically by this but know that as a praying man who believes in God Almighty I have been asking for guidance and direction, patience and wisdom to know how to deal with the situation. I pray for our country and you guys every day...

I hope none of you are feeling alone, isolated or segmented from the world right now becuase of the quarantine but know there is a ton of folks on this site that would be willing to spend some time talking to you...

Cap

 

[Lodi]

I can’t fathom a death rate that high in the USA when global deaths aren’t even nearing that at this point.

 

[Kiwi Rider]

So far here in NZ we have 512 cases, confirmed and probable (probable??) and 1 death.
The average Kiwi is compliant with the 'stay at home save lives' directive from our Prime Minister (Queen Jacinda, aka as the Tooth Fairy') but after one week of lockdown, people are starting to venture out of their homes, I see more and more traffic every day.
I live with my two dogs in my own home in a small country town/community.
I'm in phone contact with all my friends and family so I don't feel alone at all.
I too am a man of faith, just as you are Cap, and I'll never be alone because I walk with Him every moment of every day.
The last time I commented here on the forum on the situation reported in the media of the USA's virus stats, I was flamed for it. I will keep my opinions (which are based on every news media report that I've read) to myself re the US situation. I can only stand back and watch now.

 

[Mr Brown]

The case fatality rate is about 6% according to the latest research, so that many deaths are likely only if everyone in the entire country contracts the virus, which is possible, but improbable. Even with numbers that high, it's still highly unlikely that otherwise healthy folks are going to die in large numbers. Most of the fatalities are going to be people with underlying health issues, and/or elderly people. In other words who are less able to fight the respiratory infection.

 

[Mr Brown]

So far here in NZ we have 512 cases, confirmed and probable (probable??) and 1 death.
The average Kiwi is compliant with the 'stay at home save lives' directive from our Prime Minister (Queen Jacinda, aka as the Tooth Fairy') but after one week of lockdown, people are starting to venture out of their homes, I see more and more traffic every day.
I live with my two dogs in my own home in a small country town/community.
I'm in phone contact with all my friends and family so I don't feel alone at all.
I too am a man of faith, just as you are Cap, and I'll never be alone because I walk with Him every moment of every day.
The last time I commented here on the forum on the situation reported in the media of the USA's virus stats, I was flamed for it. I will keep my opinions (which are based on every news media report that I've read) to myself re the US situation. I can only stand back and watch now.

Wasn't meaning for you to take it personally Greg, I was questioning your source of news, not your integrity.

 

[fallenarch]

The case fatality rate is about 6% according to the latest research, so that many deaths are likely only if everyone in the entire country contracts the virus, which is possible, but improbable. Even with numbers that high, it's still highly unlikely that otherwise healthy folks are going to die in large numbers. Most of the fatalities are going to be people with underlying health issues, and/or elderly people. In other words who are less able to fight the respiratory infection.

Isn't your math off? 6% of 350 million +/- is 21 million, not 200,000 deaths. They are saying 10% get the virus (3.5 million people) and 6% (210,000 people) die. There are more young people and people without other health issues dying, they don't know why.

The virus grows exponentially. We are seeing that now with the virus cases doubling faster and faster. Further, we don't know how many people already have the virus. So we don't know if we are on the way up the hill or on the way down.

The problem here is if the virus cases overwhelm the medical resources it can run unchecked through the population. Many more will die then. That's why isolation is so critical, even for people who mistakenly think it's the flu.

 

[Cantab]

The case fatality rate is about 6% according to the latest research, so that many deaths are likely only if everyone in the entire country contracts the virus, which is possible, but improbable. Even with numbers that high, it's still highly unlikely that otherwise healthy folks are going to die in large numbers. Most of the fatalities are going to be people with underlying health issues, and/or elderly people. In other words who are less able to fight the respiratory infection.

Im curious to know in a healthy person what state your lungs/respiratory system are gonna be in after its been agressively attacked from Covid-19 , it hits harder than the usual flu we're used to.
Does it leave you in a weaker state to fight off future flu's/colds etc , is your lung capacity reduced ? I guess we'll know in a few months.

Great post btw Cap

 

[WuzzaCBXRider]

Im curious to know in a healthy person what state your lungs/respiratory system are gonna be in after its been agressively attacked from Covid-19 , it hits harder than the usual flu we're used to.
Does it leave you in a weaker state to fight off future flu's/colds etc , is your lung capacity reduced ? I guess we'll know in a few months.

Great post btw Cap

I’ve been wondering if once having it and recovered, can you get it again? And if I tested ok today could I get it tomorrow? Of course the latter has to be true but what we need in order to isolate those infected is mass testing. Then, we need a vaccine.

 

[Cantab]

So far here in NZ we have 512 cases, confirmed and probable (probable??) and 1 death.
The average Kiwi is compliant with the 'stay at home save lives' directive from our Prime Minister (Queen Jacinda, aka as the Tooth Fairy') but after one week of lockdown, people are starting to venture out of their homes, I see more and more traffic every day.
I live with my two dogs in my own home in a small country town/community.
I'm in phone contact with all my friends and family so I don't feel alone at all.
I too am a man of faith, just as you are Cap, and I'll never be alone because I walk with Him every moment of every day.
The last time I commented here on the forum on the situation reported in the media of the USA's virus stats, I was flamed for it. I will keep my opinions (which are based on every news media report that I've read) to myself re the US situation. I can only stand back and watch now.

708 cases at this time actually,14 people in hosp 2 in ICU, 82 have recovered, 1 death

 

[Cantab]

I’ve been wondering if once having it and recovered, can you get it again? And if I tested ok today could I get it tomorrow? Of course the latter has to be true but what we need in order to isolate those infected is mass testing. Then, we need a vaccine.

Yes a passenger on the Diamond Princess got it again.

 

[rd99]

42,158 deaths from covid19 worldwide
7,774,744,200 world population

 

[Lodi]

42,158 deaths from covid19 worldwide
7,774,744 world population

Need too add three more zeros to that world population number.

 

[ottafish]

I work in the travel / tourism industry and we're getting reports that it's going to be at least 12 months before cross country / international travel will be going again. Countries can start to open local domestic stuff sooner, but all cross border / international travel stuff will be a no go. (Visa's will require a medical certificate for an inoculation to allow entry)

 

[Mr Brown]

Isn't your math off? 6% of 350 million +/- is 21 million, not 200,000 deaths. They are saying 10% get the virus (3.5 million people) and 6% (210,000 people) die. There are more young people and people without other health issues dying, they don't know why.

The virus grows exponentially. We are seeing that now with the virus cases doubling faster and faster. Further, we don't know how many people already have the virus. So we don't know if we are on the way up the hill or on the way down.

The problem here is if the virus cases overwhelm the medical resources it can run unchecked through the population. Many more will die then. That's why isolation is so critical, even for people who mistakenly think it's the flu.

Sorry, I missed the decimal, I should have typed .6%. And I based my number on 300 million.
To your point about exponential growth, I agree the problem is still lack of testing. Nobody really knows how many people have had it, or how fast it's spreading.
Isolation is a good idea to be sure.

 

[Mr Brown]

Yes a passenger on the Diamond Princess got it again.

Do you have a link to that? If it's accurate then a vaccine won't work.

 

[Mr Brown]

Im curious to know in a healthy person what state your lungs/respiratory system are gonna be in after its been agressively attacked from Covid-19 , it hits harder than the usual flu we're used to.
Does it leave you in a weaker state to fight off future flu's/colds etc , is your lung capacity reduced ? I guess we'll know in a few months.

Great post btw Cap

As you said, we'll all find out in a few months.

 

[Bumblebee]

Do you have a link to that? If it's accurate then a vaccine won't work.

…..and that's a scary thought right there....if a vaccine won't work, I wonder what the outcome will be?

 

[c10]

I want to know how this will affect pie ,and Titanium products. I'm very concerned of cross contamination of these very important to me things .

( just to lighten the mod ,and crack a smile)

 

[Bumblebee]

our government just announced Covid 19 measures will be in place until July most likely...

Here comes a recession at least. I know once the all clear is sounded, the economy will go nuts...people will be wanting to shop and spend like banshees.

 

[bigoltool]

The human factor scares me more than the virus itself frankly. People acting irrationally, panick buying, not heeding the advice of the medical professionals etc. The impact to medical infrastructure is the immediate concern, but at some point just getting to the grocery store for basics will be compromised and Martial law becomes a very real concern. Hope it doesn't get to that point.

Take care all and stay safe!