Stock market boom on the horizon?

[Tufbusa]

I see the stock market getting a shot in the arm and going gangbusters over the next year if the Republicans take over the Senate. If the Republicans fail to take over the senate I am suspicious the current bubble will burst and we will all be sniffling in our beer like we were in 2008. I will be keeping an eye on the election results tomorrow night with high hopes!

 

[TallTom]

As dysfunctional as the government has become, I think the market will go up regardless. No place else for people to see capitol growth really left right now. Google (or whichever dot com it was, opening at what 300 and going to 700 proves that the market doesn't actually need sound profit and loss statements. They will create the trend.

 

[sixpack577]

It's definitely going up...and will soon crash again.
Wait until the dollar loses it's world reserve currency status(not if, but when), then the U.S and the world as we've known it is history.

 

[TallTom]

It's definitely going up...and will soon crash again.
Wait until the dollar loses it's world reserve currency status(not if, but when), then the U.S and the world as we've known it is history.

Wow. Really? Despite what you may think, we (THE USA) still swings a pretty big mallet in the world of all things financial. Granted not as big as before, but if we took a crap, the economic world would be in a pretty bad way overall. The USD is still a pretty high standard by which most markets value. Our problem was and continues to be that we simply don't produce things the rest of the world needs as much as is needed. We have sent all of our labor jobs to India, China etc.

 

[dadofthree]

 

[sixpack577]

Wow. Really? Despite what you may think, we (THE USA) still swings a pretty big mallet in the world of all things financial. Granted not as big as before, but if we took a crap, the economic world would be in a pretty bad way overall. The USD is still a pretty high standard by which most markets value. Our problem was and continues to be that we simply don't produce things the rest of the world needs as much as is needed. We have sent all of our labor jobs to India, China etc.

The U.S has been printing money for over 5 years now, and not to replace worn currency either. Printing money for the sole purpose of paying the intrest on the national debt. So, keep increasing the amount of anything and the value of what is already available will decrease.
Who holds the majority of the U.S debt? China. China, who is well known as an allie to Russia.
Around 2 months ago China and Russia agreed that they no longer had to trade with dollars whenever they so please.
For anyone who does not know; If you want to trade internationally, buy gold, oil, whatever, you must first buy dollars...regardless of your country's currency's value.
This is not conspiracy nonsense either, it made national news.
They are also encouraging the European Union and middle east to follow suite, and it's not a hard sell.
Do you not think that China(and the rest of the world)doesn't realize that the U.S national debt can never be repaid? There is no magic plan to fix it. The number is too great, and growing at over 200 million dollars an hour, every day, 365 days a year. Meanwhile the U.S prints more money just to pay the intrest.
Not "if", but when the rest of the world decides to move away from the dollar as the world reserve currency, that will be the biggest stock market crash in history. The dollar doesn't have to be worth pennies either, even devalued by 10% will be catastrophic.
Will that cause a global ripple effect? Or course. But don't think that the rest of the world's super powers don't realize that. And know that certain things must take place before they can attempt to restructure.
There has been a "conspiracy" push towards a one world currency for years. I wonder why?
American society has become arrogant, that we rule the world and will forever.
People need to open their eyes and look around. The clock is running down.
I love the U.S and am so grateful to live in and have grown up in such a great place. But sadly enough, nations rise and nations fall.
The future of this world looks bleak at best.
I don't have to try to persuade or convince anyone either, just sit back and wait for it. Sad as that is.
9/11 couldn't happen, America is invincible(whether you belive the government...or realize that they did it). The 08/09 stock market crashes couldn't either, America was just too strong for that. The list goes on.
I'm with Jesus and worry about nothing, come what may. But I'm just a crazy Christian, what do I know.
The truth IS stranger than fiction. The media driven view of the world couldn't be further from the truth.

 

[TallTom]

^ Now I will agree on some of your points. Printing Money just to print it, is a bad idea. But we have been doing this since we left the Gold Standard and that has been longer than 5 years ago. And I will agree that the clock is running here.

But you fail to point out that we can do a few things when we really decide we need to. For one, we could now pump our way out of this. By that I mean, we can now produce enough oil to sell all we need to, to evaporate our debt in about 5 years or so. We have enough gold reserves that we could buy our way out.

Will we do this? Only when the plane is on fire, the wings have ripped off and we need a parachute to keep from hitting the ground hard. Right now we are running with one engine out, and another starting to run rough. :-). We have much we could do to right to fix both our engines, but right now, the pilot is asleep at the controls. Sooner or later the passengers will become worried enough. But right now, they are all watching the inflight movie, oblivious to much else.

I am more worried about China than I am Russia. But again, China needs us as much as we need them. I suspect you will hear of an oil deal in the near future say 5 years, that will cut a deal to pump our way out of this. Russia has been reduced to a territorial power rather than a global one. And we have the European Economic Counsel, who swings a bigger mallet than Russia does. It appears that Ukraine is the line drawn in the sand. Stay tuned for that story. I think Russia is cutting their own throat right now. But we will see.

 

[twotonevert]

I see the stock market getting a shot in the arm and going gangbusters over the next year if the Republicans take over the Senate. If the Republicans fail to take over the senate I am suspicious the current bubble will burst and we will all be sniffling in our beer like we were in 2008. I will be keeping an eye on the election results tomorrow night with high hopes!

I hope you are right, we need a stronger economy and good leadership that cares about this country.

 

[mysql]

Stock market is a game of musical chairs at this point. No one wants to get out and risk missing out on gains, but everyone knows a retraction is coming.

Housing market is slowing, just like it did in 2008. Not looking good for the near future.

 

[TallTom]

Stock market is a game of musical chairs at this point. No one wants to get out and risk missing out on gains, but everyone knows a retraction is coming.

Housing market is slowing, just like it did in 2008. Not looking good for the near future.

I think its regional. Housing seems to have bottomed here and is up ticking.

 

[skydivr]

I think here's the problem: The market has been injected with so much free cash via QE1-3, stimulus and ridiculously low interest rates, that nobody really knows what the TRUE non-manipulated DOW number really is, that when a more conservative administration tries to cut that crap out, how far down and how well can the market absorb it. IF the economy is truly doing well, it can handle it, but I don't think we are there yet. A correction is eventually going to happen, but there may be good money to be made until it does. It's all about timing...

 

[TallTom]

I think it corrected last week for a day or so.....lol.

I agree this is a bubble, but there are plenty of people dumping tons of air into it to keep blowing it up. It stopped making sense about 2000 points ago.

 

[IG.]

Here is my prediction, and here is my logic. If not for a detour into a promised land the stock market took starting in 1995, the fall off the cliff which followed in 2000, and the two aftershocks with its respective recoveries, it would be... well, just follow the red line.

I put my money where my mouth is for the past number of years - namely in QQQ when Nasdaq was around 2200 (around 2006-2007 IIRC), and so far my return is 105% or so. As expected, there will be overreaction and NASDAQ will shoot above 7000 and that will be the time to get out. Otherwise, see ya all at 7000.

Another good thing about investing in the entire market is that I can sleep at night and not worry about ups and downs every day. It was a hard lesson to learn after I lost a lot in 2000 picking individual stocks, effectively gambling.

A small and possibly inconclusive detail, but the recovery of the second aftershock is noticeably steeper than the first one.

Oh, and before anyone starts giving 100 reasons why this won't happen, keep in mind that since 1975 we probably could write 10 volumes 1000 pages each worth of various reasons which could possibly affect NASDAQ, yet its line is very consistent through the years, and it would only be logical to extrapolate based on that line.

 

[Amode]

Obama has to go first. Then years to fix.

 

[GNBRETT]

the market has been so volatile this year and last year that I don't even sweat wen it tanks a 1000 points in a week cause the next week it will go up a 1000 points. the world economy is stronger then many believe. if u followed it closely ud see the stock market will continue to climb.

its due for a small correction but so what at the rate its been going it aint gonna matter. I'm in it for the long haul and always have been so these dips bank n fourth don't mean chit to me. especially since the DOW is at like 17.6.

the market is exactly where the real experts predicted it to be by 2015 giv or take a couple hundred points. it won't be long before its at 20,000.

 

[mysql]

Who holds the majority of the U.S debt? China. China, who is well known as an allie to Russia.

No, that is incorrect.

As of 2013:

40% of US debt is held by the federal government (think social security, retirement, disability, military, medicare). The federal reserve has 12%

Your answer is only valid if the question is: "Which foreign country holds the majority of US debt." That would be China at 8%, but all foreign countries combined total 34%.

 

[sixpack577]

No, that is incorrect.

As of 2013:

40% of US debt is held by the federal government (think social security, retirement, disability, military, medicare). The federal reserve has 12%

Your answer is only valid if the question is: "Which foreign country holds the majority of US debt." That would be China at 8%, but all foreign countries combined total 34%.

"As of 2013", and it's almost 2015.
The debt has went Wayyy up since then.

 

[IG.]

While we argue with each other regarding semantics and small points, our government - regardless of which party is in immediate control - keeps selling our country to pursue their own agendas.

 

[mysql]

"As of 2013", and it's almost 2015.
The debt has went Wayyy up since then.

Yes, the holdings of the Fed is obviously growing. China... not so much.

 

[TallTom]

Here is my prediction, and here is my logic. If not for a detour into a promised land the stock market took starting in 1995, the fall off the cliff which followed in 2000, and the two aftershocks with its respective recoveries, it would be... well, just follow the red line.

I put my money where my mouth is for the past number of years - namely in QQQ when Nasdaq was around 2200 (around 2006-2007 IIRC), and so far my return is 105% or so. As expected, there will be overreaction and NASDAQ will shoot above 7000 and that will be the time to get out. Otherwise, see ya all at 7000.

Another good thing about investing in the entire market is that I can sleep at night and not worry about ups and downs every day. It was a hard lesson to learn after I lost a lot in 2000 picking individual stocks, effectively gambling.

A small and possibly inconclusive detail, but the recovery of the second aftershock is noticeably steeper than the first one.

Oh, and before anyone starts giving 100 reasons why this won't happen, keep in mind that since 1975 we probably could write 10 volumes 1000 pages each worth of various reasons which could possibly affect NASDAQ, yet its line is very consistent through the years, and it would only be logical to extrapolate based on that line.

A very good recap. Hard to dispute what is obvious.